The Grand National attracts analysis unlike any other. It used to be one of the most reliable 'trends' races, given the fiercely unique test it presented. However, the softening of the obstacles and compressing of the weights has opened up the contest.
While some trends are no longer relevant (like weights, with 11-9 and 11-6 recently crossing the line first) there are still some important things to keep in mind when weighing up your selection.
Remember it's a game of opinions, not science, and here's ours.
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Profile of a Grand National winner
Class - Even Rule the World (the lowest rated recent winner) had finished runner up in a Grade One.
Stamina - While going further than 4 miles is almost always a step in to the unknown, a winner will have already shown winning form over at least 3 miles.
Experience - Previous National experience (Welsh, Scottish, Irish, etc) is a positive, as it previous completions over the national obstacles (in either a previous National, or Topham, Becher).
Jumping - You're simply not going to win any larger runner handicap if you're not jumping well, let alone the National.
This year we have the factor of Soft - Heavy ground. This hugely benefits slower, stronger horses at the bottom of the weights. It probably favours Irish bred horses, and might counter the recent success of younger, less experienced types.
Winners will generally have had a quiet season (less than 5 starts), run well last time (top 3 but top 9 ok) - since weights were confirmed, and competed in 10-14 chases in their career.
The key thing to note is that there won't be a horse that ticks all the boxes, and the winner never does. But now we have an idea of what we're looking for, let's get stuck in....
Aintree Grand National: Horse by Horse Guide
Blaklion (14/1) - Placed last year carrying 9lbs less. In form but too much to ask on this ground.
Anibale Fly (12/1) - Ran a fantastic trial in the Gold Cup, would have been of serious interest on better ground.
The Last Samuri (22/1) - 2nd in 2016, his chance looks to have passed.
Valseur Lido (100/1) - Multiple G1 winner but recent form & going asks too many questions.
Total Recall (12/1) - Improved out of sight this season, but is still less experienced than most and can make errors, including falling last time, so carrying 11-5 to glory in heavy here looks a big ask.
Alpha Des Obeaux (40/1) - Case can be made after running Total Recall close in October, but run six times since then and hard to see necessary improvement coming in these conditions.
Perfect Candidate (66/1) - Horses of his age & experience have done well, and conditions might play to his strengths. Solid jumper, has class and stamina - but last of recent form is a worry.
Shantou Flyer (28/1) - Bags of experience for an 8yr old, strong run at the Festival catches the eye, but hard to see where he'll find improvement after such a busy campaign. Goes on heavy and has experience of the fences.
Tenor Nivernais (100/1) - Looks to be on downgrade after a remarkable time last season.
Carlingford Lough (50/1) - Multiple G1 winner in heyday, but struggled since turning 11 (now 12).
Tiger Roll (14/1) - 5 chase wins include the National Hunt Chase, a Munster National and the XC Chase at the festival. Fantastic profile and racing weight, but can make jumping mistakes and not encountered ground like this that often.
Regal Encore (33/1) - Non-Runner
Vieux Lion Rouge (33/1) - Four cracks at these obstacles with mixed results. Looks like he doesn't quite get home over the distance, and the extreme going is unlikely to help.
Chase the Spud (40/1) - At his best on marathon trips on heavy ground, but probably too high in weights now.
Warriors Tale (50/1) - Consistent, and although close up 2nd in 3m Soft race in Jan, bulk of form suggests he's not going to thrive in this.
Seeyouatmidnight (14/1) - Previously consistent, has form on heavy and over marathon trip (though not at same time) - plenty to take on trust after two interrupted seasons.
Gas Line Boy (25/1) - Pictured on our home page winning at Exeter in 2014, and now an established staying chaser with mixed experience with these fences (fallen twice) . Weighted to best and no recent run, but was 5th last year and form on heavy suggests he can go well again.
The Dutchman (22/1) - Win at Haydock on Heavy in Jan announced his credentials, big test for one low on experience.
Pleasant Company (33/1) - Still low on experience despite running 9th last time. Below par this year, hard to trust.
Ucello Conti (20/1) - Third attempt and at his best in competitive staying handicaps on soft ground, but probably needs to find improvement to win, and doesn't seem so reliable any more.
Saint Are (66/1) - Bound to have his fans after running 2nd & 3rd in the 2015 and 2017 contests. Wants firmer ground and an unlikely runner.
Raz De Maree (25/1) - Experienced chaser who specialises in soft ground nationals, so has to be on the radar. 10-9 is a nice 'racing weight' but this 13yr old has to cope with a career high mark.
I Just Know (20/1) - Similar profile to 2013 winner, looks ready for the test, young & might just take the 14lb rating hike in his stride.
Virgillo (80/1) - Promising national type but form & fitness taken on trust after two no-shows this season.
Baie Des Iles (18/1) - Would certainly buck a few trends, as a 7yr old french mare with a lady rider on top, but plenty of strong form in long distance heavy ground chases makes her a serious threat.
Maggio (100/1) - Had joy at this meeting before but little sign of light in two years.
Pendra (100/1) - Lightly raced for his age, struggled off similar mark in similar conditions in 2016.
Buywise (66/1) - Well known for making mistakes and finishing like a train, his best runs normally come in defeat. Won a veterans' race in January but failed to land a blow in similar conditions in 2016 when in better form.
Childrens List (100/1) - Fifth chase start, thrown in at the deep end.
Lord Windermere (66/1) - Best achievements been at the Cheltenham Festival, hard to predict a swansong here.
Captain Redbeard (20/1) - Copes with Heavy but not sure his jumping & stamina are robust enough
Houblon Des Obeaux (40/1) - Surprise he hasn't contested this race more often in a long career contesting staying chases. Will probably complete in his own time.
Bless the Wings (66/1) - 47th career chase, doesn't look like one to relish the conditions.
Milansbar (33/1) - Relishes a soft ground staying challenge and comes in good form so has to enter calculations. Nice racing weight and should run well, but will have to find improvement to claim the spoils.
Final Nudge (50/1) - Has strong form on Soft ground nationals so is hard to discount. Fear is his season is tapering off, rather than peaking. Decent place claims.
Double Ross (100/1) - Has form at longer distances but bulk of career bests are on shorter trips, better going, and increasingly long ago.
Thunder And Roses (80/1) - Relishes a staying trip on soft ground but have to fear for enthusiasm after two falls.
Delusionofgrandeur (80/1) - Best runs have come over 3m on soft but this is a big step up from his successes. Will show up early before tiring.
Road to Riches (66/1) - rated 167 in his pomp (142 here) and only 11, but recent evidence suggests the enthusiasm has gone.
Walk in the Mill - NR
Conclusion
Baie Des Iles & I Just Know look the likeliest winners, while Milansbar & Final Nudge look decent value for the places. Anyone holding sweepstake tickets for Gas Line Boy or Raz De Maree are entitled to be quietly confident.
LW
