Great start to the new season with both our 3pt stakes coming in, and all five tips beating the market
3pts Jets ML (v Titans) at 2.05: WON, FT 23-10 (Closed 2.00)
2pts Buccaneers ML (v Bengals) at 2.75: FT 27-33 (Closed 2.60)
3pts Vikings ML (v Packers) at 1.83: WON, FT 39-22 (Closed 1.72)
2pts Cardinals +10.5 (v Chargers) at 1.80: WON, FT 26-14 (Closed 1.75)
2pts Cowboys -2.5 (v Giants) at 1.91: FT 20-28 (Closed 1.72)
LW
The 2026 NFL Season kicks off on the 9th September when the Patriots travel to take on the Seahawks in a rematch of Superbowl LX.
We will soon be publishing our Outright tips for the upcoming 2026 Season.
We're very proud of our American Football service, which was inducted in to the Smart Betting Club Hall of Fame in 2023.
*NEW* we have launched a NFL Only subscription
Explore plans >
Our NFL tipster joined us in 2023 and has amassed over £940 in profit to £5 stakes.
From 1143 published tips he's +188.26pts at 9% Return on Investment
The jewel in the crown is the stunning performance on long term markets.
From 104 published Outright tips he has yielded +87.67pts profit at 57% ROI.
His week to week tips come on the most liquid markets - money line & point spread (/ match winner & handicap).
From 373 Money Line tips he has yielded +66.23pts profit at 11% ROI.
The headline story from 2025 was one of heartbreak. Despite our Outright tips recording 5pts profit it was a frustrating case of what could have been.
We were on Broncos ew for the AFC at 16/1. They sailed through the season and secured the #1 seed. Their season was dealt a cruel blow as QB Bo Nix's season was ended against the Bills in the Divisional Round. They'd have been favoured against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game had he been healthy.
In the NFC we were on the Packers, who had the NFC North under control before injuries took hold. Their season ended when they blew a 21-6 fourth-quarter lead - and a 97% in-running win probability - against the Bears in the Wildcard round.
Tracking NFL performance year to year is generally a futile exercise as the sample size of bets is statistically irrelevant - so to combat this I have started tracking the closing line of our tips.
Soon I'll publish a guide to the Closing Line, how to beat it, what it tells us, and what Closing Line Value means. Videos are currently being posted on our twitter feed.
Tracking performance against closing lines allows us to short-cut the short term volatility of results.
Any set of results is possible in the short term given the randomness involved in each game.
However, regularly beating the closing line, even in the short term, is a very reliable indicator of long term profits.
You need luck to win bets, but you need skill to beat the closing line.
In the 2025 season a stunning 91% of our tips beat the Closing Line.
The average price of our selections was 2.79, with the average closing price 2.62.
Adjusting for bookmaker margin our expected ROI for the 2025 season was +3.2% ROI (this is Closing Line Value).
While very impressive, this was actually below our lifetime ROI of +5% on match markets (1006 bets).
The 2026 season starts next week;
LW
While he didn't win, last week showed that Scheffler is simply never out of contention.
Spaun withdrew before hitting a ball so bets on him will be void.
1pt ew Xander Schauffele at 16/1: unplaced
0.5pt ew J.J. Spaun at 45/1: Withdrew - Void
Five to Follow
Xander Schauffele at 20/1: T41
J.J. Spaun at 45/1: WD
Collin Morikawa at 55/1: T54
Sam Stevens at 90/1: T35
John Keefer at 150/1: T41
Five to Oppose
Rickie Fowler at 50/1: T18
Jordan Spieth at 60/1: MC
Wyndham Clark at 70/1: T35
Daniel Berger at 70/1: T16
Harry Hall at 70/1: MC
LW