Time for something new here at LoveWinners.
Rugby tips have been the beating heart of the site since its inception in early 2011 but tryscorer tips is not something we've dabbled in much, till now.
Tips brought to you by 'Warri0r', who you may have had the misfortune of interacting with on Twitter. Prices taken from bet365 unless stated otherwise.
Super League: Round 5
St Helens v Warrington (Friday)
Matty Ashton anytime 13/8 2U
Dayon Sambou anytime 7/4 1U
Curtis Sironen anytime 9/2 0.5U
Matty Ashton 2 or more 15/2 0.5U
The bookies expect this to be a low scoring contest as has often been the case when two top teams go up against each other. However, there a few of players of interest in the Anytime Try Scorer market.
Matty Ashton (13/8) is an exceptional finisher playing on the wing of a fluent left-edge, an edge that’s potency will only be strengthened by the recent addition of Marc Sneyd. The price on offer seems fair anyway, but when you take into consideration the potential for the opposing St Helens right-edge to contain two rookies, Harry Robertson and Dayon Sambou, the selection becomes even more appealing. There’s some chance ‘Wello’ moves Bennison to the right wing, which wouldn’t do anything to put me off, or he may opt for something different altogether, namely, playing someone else (Davies, Whitely) at centre, with Robertson moving to the wing. In any case, there’s either going to be square pegs in round holes, or, inexperienced (or shit) players opposing a well refined, left-edge attack.
Ashton also scored 5 times in 4 victories v St Helens last season, and although the St Helens pack appear to be less toothless than they were last year, and therefore territory might not come quite as easily this time around for the Wire, there’s still enough justification to take a chance at 13/8, irrespective of how St Helens line up.
On the other side of the coin, I’m going to take a punt on the aforementioned Dayon Sambou (7/4). Sambou has been named in the 21 man squad and could potentially take the injured Kyle Feldts’ place on the St Helens right wing.
If it feels counterintuitive to select a player that I have previously identified as a potential weak spot in defence, I’d like to draw attention to the somewhat obvious fact that defence and attack are two completely different elements of the game. This is especially evident in young players, where they often have the raw ability and speed required to make them dangerous in attack, but don’t always possess the defensive qualities required to make them formidable on the other side of the ball. I believe that if the usual St Helens right winger, Kyle Feldt was playing, he would be priced somewhere around 11/8; and although Sambou is perhaps a slightly less able finisher from close range, he has that extra yard of pace that can make up for it. I can just about make a case at 7/4.
There’s no guarantee that he plays, but if not, the bet will be void.
For something at a slightly larger price, I wouldn’t put anyone off Curtis Sironen (9/2). Sironen runs good lines, reads the game well, and uses his size to accurately target half backs in the defensive line. We can’t know yet for sure, as Wire will often have Williams defending on the side they perceive to be the most under threat, but there’s a good chance Sironen will be lining up against Mark Sneyd, who famously struggles v Second Rowers of Sironen’s profile.
Finally, I could be tempted by Matty Ashton 2 or more at 15/2 and even the hatrick at 40/1, on the basis that, if St Helens do have a problem on that right edge, it is going to be a problem for the full 80 minutes - and with nowhere to hide for the right side defence, it could get ugly. This would be not too dissimilar to the issues they had versus Hull KR last season, and to the ones Wigan faced v Hull FC last weekend, which saw wingers for Rovers and FC both score quick-fire hat tricks v weak edge defences.
Selections
Matty Ashton anytime 13/8 2U
Dayon Sambou anytime 7/4 1U
Curtis Sironen anytime 9/2 0.5U
Matty Ashton 2 or more 15/2 0.5U
~Warri0r (@Sharks111064831)