Castleford v Leigh

David Armstrong 10/11 1U
Tesi Nui 7/4 1U
Andrew Badrock 5/1 0.5U

Leigh are a better side than Castleford, and should win if they can cope with the losses of good-but-not-key/players, Ethan O’Neil and Umyala Hanley.

I remain unconvinced about David Armstrong’s ability to get the ball to his wingers in good attacking positions, and so will again steer away from the Leigh wingers, and choose instead to back him, David Armstrong (10/11) to score; on the basis that the flat track and good conditions should suit his illusive running style.

I will also take a punt on Tesi Nui (7/4), who is an absolute handful from close-range.

Cas’ small pitch and Leigh’s expected territorial dominance should see Nui get plenty of opportunity to power his way over.

Finally, I am having a punt on Andrew Badrock (5/1), Andrew is big and quick and at 5/1, it’s a fair price. There is also some chance he spends some time at centre, which would only make the selection more fancied.

Huddersfield v Catalans

Reimis Smith 8/5 1U

I am going for Reimis Smith (8/5). Catalans’ attack is far from the finished product and the absence of Sam Tomkins won’t help.

However, Smith is big, strong and quick, and is facing up v a lacklustre opponent in Huddersfield. I expect the Catalans pack to get on top and as a result, Smith should get a chance to get over.

I am happy to take the price on offer for a unit.

LW

Round 7 - Hull KR v Wigan

Joe Burgess 7/4 2U
Liam Marshall 15/8 2U
Sauoso Sue 8/1 0.25U
Jacob Douglas 15/4 2U (Unlikely to play, will be void if so)

The totals line is currently at 32.5, indicating the bookies are again expecting a low scoring match between two of the leagues’ better sides; and they may well be right.

The defence focused, conservative game-plan that Wigan used to nullify Rovers in last year’s grand final, has seemingly become the blue-print that Willie Peters wishes to implement in his own team, and with the absence of Rovers’ only halfback, Mikey Lewis, I can certainly understand the bookies’ low line.

However, there are few factors leading me to think this may not be as low scoring as they do: one, this is not a play-off game, and although it means the world to Rovers - Wigan aren’t really trying yet this year - and so the usual intensity needed to ensure a low scoring game may not be there; two, the conditions look ideal for attacking rugby. Both teams posses weapons all over the pitch, so nailing the individual players that actually do the scoring is no mean feat.

However, I’ve opted for both teams’ prolific triesmen, left wingers, Joe Burgess (7/4) and Liam Marshall (15/8) - both prices represent value.

The absence of England internationals, Luke Thompson and Ethan Harvard, gives us a small angle to make a play on Suaoso Sue (8/1), with the Wigan middles lacking a bit of goal-line defensive quality that would usually be there, we can’t take the 8/1 of offer for a small stake.

I’ve also gone for Jacob Douglas (15/4). Abbas Miski’s inclusion in the squad means Douglas isn’t likely to play, however, if he does take to the field, he is overpriced, and there isn’t any downside as the bet will be void should he not feature.

And finally, for something a bit different - than can be a lot of fun, I wouldn’t put anyone off the same game multiples just incase the game does blow open and is not the grindathon the bookies expect (like Wigan v Warrington in Vegas), players such as Jake Wardle (3/1), Peta Hiku (10/3) Jai Field (13/5), and Kelepi Tanginoa (5/1), Oli Gildart (3/1) and Zach Eckersley (10/3), will serve you well. 37-36 one time?

LW

Not a bad first week with a couple of nice winners in the St Helens v Leeds game, with Dayon Sambou and Matty Ashton both crossing the whitewash at 15/8 and 13/8 respectively.

Round Five Recap

Love or Loathe the 'Warri0r', he's back for more in Round Six of the Super League. Prices taken from bet365 unless stated otherwise. 

Super League: Round 6
Catalans v St Helens (Saturday)

Just one final selection for this week and that’s Dayon Sambou (5/2).

Dayon got the job done for us last week with a finish that was more acrobatic than it needed to be, but it’s nice to know he’s got that in his locker should he need it.

I expect he will retain his place on the left wing for St Helens and although this game threatens to be one of the most turgid and dull affairs imaginable given the dour playing style of the two teams, there’s enough room in the price offered that we don’t have to win too often to make this a winning play in the long term.

Selections

Dayon Sambo 5/2 1U

~Warri0r (@Sharks111064831)