THE BLOG

13
Feb

Cheltenham Festival 2018 – Hotpots – Should you be a backer or a layer?

With only four weeks until the famous roar signals the start of the festival, its a good time to take a look through the markets and pick out a few contenders at the front of the betting who are over-priced and worthy of a wager, or overrated in the market and worth taking on..

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We'll have tips for every race. Last year's winners included 16/1 shot, Willoughby Court.

Footpad - Arkle (11/10)
At first glance the price may look short but when delving a little deeper i would suggest he should be no bigger than 4/5 at this stage. He has been very impressive in all wins over fences and its difficult to see which of the entered rivals can beat him. He readily brushed aside Petit Mouchoir last weekend and although he's sure to improve for the run its hard to see him reversing the form at Cheltenham.

Sceau Royal in the same ownership as the Fav has done well so far over fences but the form falls below what's required and although he has won at Cheltenham, the suspicion is he's better on a flatter track. He was beaten at Cheltenham by North Hill Harvey in October and that form although respectable, wouldn't be good enough to beat Footpad.

Verdict = BACK

Un De Sceaux - Ryanair (7/2)
Un De Sceaux won a weak renewal last year at the festival and although he has a phenomenal record on paper, I believe this is just as much down to trainers placement as it is the horses ability. Although he is clearly very good i believe the price is far to short in what is already shaping up to be a stronger more competitive renewal.

Although he handles all ground his best performances have come on soft ground which at this stage is still in the lap of the gods.

Verdict = LAY

Apples Shakira - Triumph (3/1)
As things stand 6 weeks out from the start of the festival, she rates the worst value of all the favorites in the antepost markets. This price has been built on reputation and the fact she is related to Apple's Jade rather than achievements on the track. All wins at Cheltenham this year have been in very soft ground in small fields against significantly inferior opposition.

I have also spoken to someone very close to the Henderson yard and they believe that 'We Have A Dream' (8/1) is the better of the two which for me backs up the fact that the price is far to short.

Verdict = LAY

Might Bite - Gold Cup (7/2)
The more i look at the Gold Cup market the more i'm coming round to the fact that Might Bite is by far the most likely winner and probably value at 7/2. At first glance it looks a wide open market but as you delve more deeply into the form it becomes apparent that he is the standout horse. The races in Ireland this year have thrown up more questions than answers and perhaps they don't have a standout contender.

Might Bite was value for more than winning distance in King George and he would have beaten Whisper by half of Prestbury Park last year in RSA without his antics. These appear to have been ironed out as the horse matures and i think its his Gold Cup to lose.

Verdict = BACK

LW

12
Feb

Saturday’s UK Horse Racing Results from Uttoxeter & Newbury

It was betfair hurdle day at Newbury and while the feature race of the day attracted a strong field, it was a little disappointing to see such un-competitive Grade races. However, it was refreshing to see the seasonal returns of Native River and Altior and pleasing to see them both oblige - especially the former, who we'd backed at evens.

Newbury
14.25: Native River 2pts win at Evs: WON, SP 8/11
15.35: Verdana Blue 1pt ew at 12/1: unplaced SP 14/1

Uttoxeter
13.20: Lerichi Belle 2pts win at 11/4: 2nd SP 11/4
14.30: Grove Silver 1pt win at 4/1: unplaced SP 9/2
15.40: Diablo De Rouhet 2pts win at 9/4: 2nd SP 4/1
16.45: Champagne James 1pt win at 11/2 : unplaced SP 9/1

LW

12
Feb

Golf Tips: PGA Tour – Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Ted Potter Jr stole the show on Saturday with a remarkable 62 .. especially as he finished bogey bogey. Final day woes struck our main hope, Dustin Johnson, who finished in a tie for 2nd. Paul Casey was our headline selection, and he finished just one place outside the payout money.

However, it was our outsider for the week, massive 150/1 shot Scott Stallings, who DID come home strong on the weekend to snag a clear 7th place, and a secure a full place payout for those getting the 7 places on offer.

PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM BETTING TIPS

1pt ew Paul Casey at 28/1: 8th
0.5pt ew Scott Stallings at 150/1: Placed - 7th (1/5 odds)

FIVE TO FOLLOW

Dustin Johnson at 6/1: T2
Jordan Spieth at 12/1: T20
Patrick Cantlay at 40/1: T35
Chesson Hadley at 50/1: T35
Scott Stallings at 150/1: 7th

FIVE TO OPPOSE

Jason Day at 10/1: T2
Gary Woodland at 28/1: MC
James Hahn at 70/1: T26
Scott Piercy at 100/1: T20
Kevin Na at 125/1: T20

LW

05
Feb

PGA Tour Tips: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Gary Woodland was the story in Arizona, closing with three birdies and winning the playoff on the opening hole. It had been five years since his last win, and it was an emotional victory that he devoted to the memory of his unborn child.

To lighter matters, Kuchar played a fantastic weekend to secure a place in a four way tie for 5th. We advised backing him with Boyles, who were offering 7 places, so would be paid to 3/4 of the stake on the place. Other place terms will vary the returns here.

PGA TOUR: PHOENIX OPEN

0.5pt ew Matt Kuchar at 45/1: T5
0.5pt ew Scott Piercy at 60/1: MC

FIVE TO FOLLOW

Matt Kuchar at 50/1: T5
Zach Johnson at 50/1: T57
Kevin Chappell at 66/1: T31
Scott Piercy at 66/1: MC
Shane Lowry at 80/1: Lowry

FIVE TO OPPOSE

Alex Noren at 40/1: T21
Gary Woodland at 50/1: 1
Patton Kizzre at 66/1: T31
Ryan Moore at 100/1: MC
Billy Horschel at 125/1: T43

LW

05
Feb

Sunday’s Horse Racing Results from Leopardstown

Edwulf was a remarkable story on the second day of the hugely successful inaugural Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown. Back in March a year ago he collapsed at the end of the 4-miler, he was all but dead for around 40 minutes, before a remarkable recovery. It was hard to believe he'd return to the track fit & well, let alone storming home to win the Irish Gold Cup at 33/1.

Leopardstown
13.15: Mr Adjudicator 1pt win at 9/2: WON, SP 3/1
13.50: Sharjah 1pt ew at 4/1: unplaced SP 4/1
15.00: Snow Falcon 1pt ew at 14/1: unplaced SP 12/1
15.35: Killultagh Vic 1pt ew at 6/1: Fell, SP 5/1

Mr Adjudicator was our winner on Sunday, following up Saturday's 22/1 winner Supasundae.

Killultagh Vic was going well and had taken the lead when coming down at the last. It was a great relief to see the horse recovered, and was none the worse for the tumble.

LW

05
Feb

NFL Tips: Superbowl Results

Well, what a game .. what a game. Eagles lose their star QB, HOF left tackle, win out through the playoffs as underdogs in every game. Fantastic sport. Here's how we got on with our picks for the night

SUPERBOWL 52 (EAGLES V PATRIOTS)

2pts Under 48.5 at 10/11: FT 33-41
2pts Philly +4.5 at 19/20: WON, FT 41-33

0.5pt Ajayi MVP at 20/1: Lost
0.5pt Ajayi 1st TD at 14/1: Lost
1pt Ajayi over 63.5 rush yards at 10/11: FT 57 yards
2pt Agholor over 41.5 Receiving yards at 10/11: WON, 84 yards 
1pt Agholor anytime TD scorer at 3/1: Lost

3pts Dion Lewis over 29.5 rec yards at 10/11: Lost

2pt: Highest Scoring Quarter = 2nd Q at 9/5: WON
2pt Over 1.5 Elliott (Philly) field goals at 10/11: WON

Total Stake 16pts, Total Return 17.14pts

Remarkable game which left us with a small profit on the evening.

We'll be back in September....

LW

04
Feb

Saturday’s Horse Racing Results from Leopardstown & Sandown

It's the inaugural holding of the 'Dublin Racing Festival' - and what a fantastic start to proceedings. Supasundae held off the biggest names in the 2m hurdling division to take the Irish Champion Hurdle. He returned at 8/1, but was a whopping 22/1 when recommended by our horse racing tipster the evening before.

Leopardstown
13.10 Fabulous Saga 1pt win at 5/1: unplaced SP 7/4
13.45: Yorkhill 2pts win at Evs: unplaced SP 7/4
14.55: Blast Of Koeman 1pt ew at 7/1: 4th SP 8/1
15.30: Supasundae 1pt ew at 22/1: WON, SP 8/1
16.05: Ben Dundee 1pt ew at 10/1: unplaced SP 7/1

Sandown
13.15: Top Gamble 1pt win at 3/1: unplaced SP 10/3
14.25: Cyrname 2pts win at 3/1: 2nd SP 9/4
15.00: Topofthegame 1pt ew at 5/1: WON, SP 11/2
15.35: Cogry 1pt ew at 10/1: UR, SP 12/1

Two winners on what was a thoroughly enjoyable day's racing.

Sunday's tips for day two of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown are live here.

LW